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Finance

The Key Information Hiding Behind ‘Consensus’ Target Stock Prices‌

Ordinary investors generally can only see an average of analysts’ target prices for a given stock. In a new study, Yale SOM’s Thomas Steffen and Frank Zhang find that when the degree of variation within that “consensus” figure is large, it’s a bad sign for future returns. ‌

A target surrounded by darts
  • Did Student Loan Forbearance Push Distressed Borrowers Further into Debt?

    In a new study, Yale SOM’s Heather Tookes and her co-authors find that after loan forebearance went into effect in March 2020, distressed borrowers’ credit scores jumped. That allowed them to take on more credit card and auto debt—and, eventually, led to higher rates of delinquencies.

    An illustration of a graduate trying to escape a storm of debt while running on top of credit cards.
  • The Business of ‘Anti-Woke’ Is Falling Flat

    Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian write that the exchange-traded funds that boycott companies taking action on social issues are underperforming the market and struggling to find investors.

    Vivek Ramaswamy at the Vision 2024 National Conservative Forum in Charleston, South Carolina, in March 2023. 
  • How Property Tax Foreclosure Accelerates Gentrification and Magnifies the Racial Wealth Gap

    Non-white homeowners are at disproportionate risk of losing their homes over unpaid property taxes, shows new research from Yale SOM’s Cameron LaPoint.

    A house under foreclosure in Denver in 2007.
  • Green Investing Could Push Polluters to Emit More Greenhouse Gases

    One common approach to sustainable investing is to provide capital for companies with low carbon emissions and withhold it for high-emissions firms. Research co-authored by Yale SOM’s Kelly Shue shows this approach can backfire.

    An illustration of a person in a brown suit trying to move a lever toward green.
  • Why Connecticut’s Investments Are Underperforming

    Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian and their team found that Connecticut’s return on its pension fund investments is among the worst in the nation. Their analysis of all 50 states offers some avenues for improvement.

    The Connecticut State Capitol in Hartford with dark clouds in the sky
  • Personal Finance: Popular Authors vs. Economists

    Before teaching a personal finance course, Prof. James Choi dipped into some popular books on the topic. He found that much of what personal finance gurus suggest is at odds with economic research—but that they also have insights into human nature that are sometimes missing from economic analyses.

    An illustration of a woman standing on top of a pile of coins
  • The Fed’s Many-Headed Dilemma

    According to Prof. William B. English, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and sent ripples through the financial system, the Federal Reserve’s challenge of pursuing maximum employment and low inflation “got even harder.”

    The Federal Reserve building seen past caution tape
  • Is the Collapse of SVB the Start of a Banking Panic?

    Silicon Valley Bank, a financial hub for tech startups, failed and was seized by regulators this week. Prof. Andrew Metrick, who has studied past financial crises, explains how SVB’s balance sheet got squeezed and what's next for the banking sector.

    SVB sign
  • Business Prognosticators Keep Getting It Wrong

    Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld explains the mistakes that analysts and forecasters make while trying to predict the future.

    A crystal ball with a stock chart inside
  • Taking a Disciplined Look at Irrational Investors

    Prof. Nicholas Barberis applies a scientific eye to the irrational ways we form beliefs and how those beliefs collectively drive financial markets.

    A professor talking with two students in from of a white board