Finance
Wisdom of the Few? Prediction Markets Are Driven by a Small Number of Skilled Traders
A new study co-authored by Yale SOM’s Theis Jensen finds that a small group of informed traders drive prices—and take home a large portion of the profits.
Over the (Very) Long Run, Stock Bubbles Are Rare
Does the rapid run-up of AI stocks portend a crash for the larger stock market? Using a unique repository of historical stock prices with Yale roots, Professor William Goetzmann and his co-authors showed that while booms are frequently followed by volatility, markets rarely give back all of their gains.
The New Fed Chair Wants Less Transparency. That’s a Mistake.
Yale SOM’s William English, a former Fed official, writes that a less communicative Fed could undermine monetary policy effectiveness, increase market volatility, and weaken democratic accountability.
The Colorado River Is Overdrawn, and a Corporate Reckoning Is Imminent
For decades, the Colorado River has delivered less water than allocated, with shrinking reservoirs making up the difference. Yale SOM’s Todd Cort argues that companies across the West have yet to account for this imbalance.
Do Search Fund CEOs Improve Performance?
An analysis by search fund expert A.J. Wasserstein and accounting scholar Jacob Thomas finds that most gains come from selling companies at higher prices relative to their earnings, not from improving margins or efficiency.
This Google Doc Helps Determine How Much to Invest in Stocks
Economists say standard investment strategies aren’t aggressive enough, but their complex allocation models aren’t practical for individual investors. A new paper co-authored by Yale SOM’s James Choi offers a simpler alternative.
Do Treasury and the Fed Need a Relationship Reset?
On March 18, Prof. William English testified to a House task force considering a “new accord” between the Fed and Treasury, arguing that such an update is unnecessary and emphasizing the importance of Fed independence.
Will Banning Corporate Homebuyers Make Housing More Affordable?
The Trump administration has moved to restrict institutional investors’ home purchases and proposed allowing buyers to draw on retirement savings for down payments. We asked Professor Cameron LaPoint, who studies housing finance, whether these policies are likely to make housing more affordable—or to push prices higher.
The Corporation Is Centuries Older than We Thought
The genesis of the joint-stock company is usually traced to the founding of the English East India Company and the Dutch East India Company around 1600. New research co-authored by Prof. William Goetzmann says this origin story may be off by centuries.
How Trump Is Making the Fed’s Job Harder
Prof. William English, a former Fed official, says that the Federal Reserve’s mission of balancing inflation and employment has been complicated by a series of wild cards delivered by the administration, including tariffs and an attempt to fire a member of the Board of Governors.
DOGE’s Lease Cancellations Are Already Hitting the Commercial Real Estate Market
A study co-authored by Yale SOM’s Cameron LaPoint shows that the cancellations drove up the cost of commercial mortgage-backed securities as investors priced in more risk, and could reverberate through the broader economy.
