In Defense of (Mathematical) Models

Edieal J. Pinker

October 13, 2020

Epidemiological models have played an influential role in governments’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yale SOM’s Edieal Pinker takes a look back at one of the most influential models and argues that such rigorous efforts at understanding the likely course of the disease, while imperfect, are critical to good decision making.

A chart of ICU occupancy under various scenarios from Imperial College London

Design, Test, Spread
August 25, 2020

Nicolas Encina ’10 and his colleagues at Ariadne Labs have been demonstrating the potential of a collaborative, multidisciplinary process for designing and scaling simple improvements to healthcare—and also its limits.
In Estimating COVID-19 Infection Risk, Frequency of an Activity Is Key

Arthur J. Swersey Johannes Ledolter Ellis Reid ’10
July 27, 2020

With proper precautions, the risk of a day at work, a ride on the bus, or a workout at the gym may be acceptable, write Yale SOM’s Arthur J. Swersey and his co-authors. But that risk compounds dramatically when an activity is repeated day after day.
Study: Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in Residential Colleges Requires Frequent Testing

Edward H. Kaplan
July 16, 2020

Using a computer model, the researchers found that weekly testing will keep outbreaks under control under relatively optimistic scenarios, but that testing every three days would be more reliable.
New Outbreaks of Coronavirus Can Be Halted with Isolation Measures, According to Study

Edward H. Kaplan
February 20, 2020

Yale SOM’s Edward Kaplan used early reports out of Wuhan to evaluate the likely effectiveness of common tactics, such as isolation of patients and quarantine, in keeping the disease from spreading in new regions.
How Machine Learning Can Find Extremists on Social Media

Tauhid Zaman
November 20, 2019
Yale SOM's Tauhid Zaman investigated how artificial intelligence could assist efforts to detect and suspend extremist accounts, before they are used to recruit members and spread propaganda.
A Decision Analysis Approach Points to Better Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer

Arthur J. Swersey
September 16, 2019
A new study led by Yale SOM’s Arthur J. Swersey, using decision analysis techniques, finds that increasing the number of biopsy needles and using probability modeling to analyze the results can help prevent unnecessary treatment while identifying dangerous cancers.
Three Questions: Prof. Vahideh Manshadi on Improving Kidney Donation

Vahideh Manshadi
July 18, 2019
This month, the Trump administration announced a series of steps to overhaul the kidney transplant system. We asked operations expert Vahideh Manshadi if the changes could make a difference for patients.
Kidney Exchange Registries Should Collaborate to Save More Lives

Vahideh Manshadi
May 14, 2019
Yale SOM’s Vahideh Manshadi and her co-authors examined the methodology of kidney exchange registries, and found that registries can find more matches if they collaborate to build a unified database.
Why Hidden Populations Are So Hard to Count

Jonathan S. Feinstein Edward H. Kaplan
December 13, 2018
Yale researchers Edward Kaplan and Jonathan Feinstein explain how widely accepted estimates have greatly undercounted the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States.
Could Better Predictions Improve End-of-Life Care?

Kerin Bess Adelson, MD Donald Lee Rogerio C. Lilenbaum, MD Edieal J. Pinker
May 18, 2018
A statistical tool that predicts when patients with advanced cancer are likely to die could help promote patient welfare by transferring more people from aggressive interventions to hospice care.