In theory, prediction markets give the most accurate possible forecasts because they incorporate all available information. But a study by Yale SOM’s Jason Dana and his co-authors showed that in some cases, forecasts can be improved by simply asking people what they think will happen.
A new study co-authored by Yale SOM’s Thomas Steffen analyzed tens of thousands of shareholder letters to reveal whether executives’ actions typically live up to their promises. It found that firms whose CEOs scored well on this measure of integrity tended to perform better, while facing lower audit fees.
Leverage-induced fire sales contributed to the worst stock market crashes in history. Prof. Kelly Shue studied account-level data from the Chinese market crash in 2015 to illuminate how much leverage matters.
Using extensive data on Uber drivers, Yale SOM’s Judith Chevalier and her co-authors examined their driving patterns to understand the economic value of flexible scheduling. They found that rideshare drivers would have to earn as much as double to accept less-flexible arrangements.