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Politics and Policy

Don’t Trust the Political Prediction Markets

Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, co-author Steven Tian, and investor and former White House staffer Anthony Scaramucci write that the markets have extremely low trading volume—which makes it easy to manipulate them.

A split screen of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump debating, with buttons to buy "yes" or "no" contracts for each of them
  • Filling In the Harris-Walz Economic Policy Scorecard

    Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and co-author Stephen Henriques analyze the policies proposed by the Democratic ticket.

    Kamala Harris speaks in front of a banner reading "Opportunity Economy/Lowering Your Costs."
  • Is Minnesota Nice for Business?

    Yale SOM leadership expert Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and co-author Stephen Henriques argue that there are good reasons why a disproportionate number of major businesses are headquartered in Minnesota.

    Minnesota State Capitol
  • Leadership Lessons from the Vice Presidential Picks

    Yale SOM leadership expert Jeffrey Sonnenfeld writes that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are demonstrating a genuine chemistry, while Donald Trump is already distancing himself from J. D. Vance.

    Kamala Harris and Tim Walz from behind at a large rally
  • Trump Is Already Rattling the Stock Market

    Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, co-author Steven Tian, and investor and analyst Whitney Tilson write that the pattern is familiar from Trump’s term in office, when his remarks frequently swayed markets—usually for the worse.

    Donald Trump on a TV at the New York Stock Exchange
  • How Leaders Finally Walk Away

    In analyzing President Joseph Biden’s decision not to run for reelection, Yale leadership expert Jeffrey Sonnenfeld sees the underlying quest for heroic mission and stature that drives many epoch-shaping leaders—and often makes succession a tricky affair.

    President Joe Biden
  • Why Many Business Leaders Are Worried about Trump’s VP Pick

    Prof. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and two Yale SOM colleagues write that the selection of J. D. Vance as vice presidential nominee reflects Trump’s worst anti-business instincts.

    Images of J. D. Vance on video screens at the Republican National Convention
  • Biden Should Go on Offense—Without Being Offensive

    Yale leadership expert Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his co-author Steven Tian argue that President Joseph Biden has a strong record of economic accomplishment, and he should tout that at the first presidential debate rather than rely on populist attacks on big business.

    Empty lectern
  • Using Operations Research to Improve the Refugee Resettlement Process

    In a new study, Yale SOM’s Vahideh Manshadi and Soonbong Lee and their co-authors propose an algorithm that can yield better employment outcomes for refugees while also reducing caseloads of service providers.

    An Afghani couple in Charlestown, Massachusetts, where they settled in 2022 after the fall of Kabul. 
  • The Coming MAGA Assault on Capitalism

    Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld writes that former president Trump and his followers have made no secret of their hostility to business or their plans to intervene in markets.

    People holding "Making America Great Again" signs at a Trump rally
  • Use Russia’s Frozen Assets to Rebuild Ukraine

    Yale SOM’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Ambassadors John E. Herbst and William B. Taylor argue that $300 billion of frozen Russian assets in Western banks should be transferred to Ukraine to help reconstruct its devastated infrastructure.

    Emergency services workers at the site of a drone attack in February in Odesa, Ukraine.