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Top of Mind

On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Roberta Romano
Roberta Romano
Sterling Professor of Law and Director, Yale Law School Center for the Study of Corporate Law

Richard Kauffman
Lecturer in the Practice of Finance; Chairman of Energy & Finance for New York, Office of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Former Prime Minister, Spain

Herbert M. Allison, Jr.
Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, TIAA-CREF

Cary Krosinsky
Lead Consultant, Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), Climate Change Asset Owner Strategy; Lecturer, Yale College and Yale Climate & Energy Institute

Jeffrey Pfeffer
Thomas D. Dee II Professor of Organizational Behavior, Stanford University Graduate School of Business

Jim Millstein
Managing Director, Lazard Frères & Co.

Professor K. Sudhir
K. Sudhir
James L. Frank ’32 Professor of Private Enterprise and Management, Professor of Marketing & Director of the China India Insights Program

Marc Speichert
Chief Marketing Officer, L'Oréal

Peter M. Schulte '83
Managing Partner and Co-founder, CM Equity Partners

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