NO. 02

What's at Stake?
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Forecasting the Vote

The media has traditionally avoided releasing voting results for battleground states until polls close. That will change on November 8 when a startup, VoteCastr, partners with Slate to publish real-time projections, based on turnout, like those in presidential campaign war rooms.

While instantaneous data gratification is increasingly the norm, one of the most respected polling organization, the Pew Research Center, is slowing things down. Noting the effective coverage of the pre-election “horse race” by poll aggregators, Pew wants to focus on “questions that others are not asking, at a depth that others may not have the resources to investigate.”

There is no shortage of polls, but they may be getting less reliable. The Harvard Business Review examines the technological and cultural shifts that make polling more challenging than even a few years ago.

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Jane Mendillo
President & CEO, Harvard Management Company, Inc.

Stuart Patterson
President and COO, RAMP

Tyler Cowen
Professor of Economics, George Mason University

William Nordhaus
Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University

Jim Matheson
CEO, Oasys Water

Mary Gorham

Rick Antle
William S. Beinecke Professor of Accounting

Cary Krosinsky
Lead Consultant, Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), Climate Change Asset Owner Strategy; Lecturer, Yale College and Yale Climate & Energy Institute