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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Stefan Wagner
Associate Professor and TUSIAD/TCCI Chair in European Economic Integration, ESMT

Ibrahim Mayaki
CEO, New Partnership for Africa's Development

Daniel Gross
Managing Director, Oaktree Capital Management

David Bach
Senior Associate Dean for Executive MBA and Global Programs & Senior Lecturer

Marc Mayer
Head of North American Institutions, Schroders

Álvaro Uribe
Former President of Colombia

Jane Mendillo
President & CEO, Harvard Management Company, Inc.

John Shrewsberry
President, Wells Fargo Securities

Robert Gifford
President and Chief Executive Officer, AIG Global Real Estate Investment Corp.

John Lichtenstein
Managing Director, Global Metals, Accenture

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