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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Maureen C. Chiquet
Global Chief Executive Officer, Chanel


Lanny Hickman
Former Executive Director, Solid Waste Association of North America

Robert Bettigole '83

John Lichtenstein
Managing Director, Global Metals, Accenture


Professor Amandine Ody-Brasier
Amandine Ody-Brasier
Assistant Professor of Organizational Behavior

Dan Ariely
James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University

Catherine Smith
Commissioner, Connecticut Department of Economics and Community Development

James Choi
Professor of Finance

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