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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors



Bob Mulroy
President & CEO, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals

Professor Peter Schott
Peter K. Schott
Juan Trippe Professor of International Economics


Jonathan Cohen
Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Co-Director, Princeton Neuroscience Institute

Andrew Metrick
Deputy Dean & Michael H. Jordan Professor of Finance and Management

Heather Tookes
Heather E. Tookes
Professor of Finance

Richard H. Thaler
Ralph and Dorothy Keller Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business

Ng Kok Song
Managing Director and Group Chief Investment Officer, GIC

Scott Griffith
CEO, Zipcar

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