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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Sass Darwish
Managing Partner, DS Advisory Group

Professor Douglas Kysar
Joseph M. Field '55 Professor of Law, Yale Law School

Bob Mulroy
President & CEO, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals

Alix Zwane
Executive Director, Evidence Action

Eugene Podkaminer
Senior Vice President of Capital Markets Research, Callan Associates

William Nordhaus
Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University

Paul Bracken
Professor of Management & Professor of Political Science

Robert Costanza
Gund Professor of Ecological Economics, and Director of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont

Professor Victoria L. Brescoll
Victoria L. Brescoll
Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior


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