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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Professor Ravi Dhar
Ravi Dhar
George Rogers Clark Professor of Management and Marketing & Director of the Center for Customer Insights

K. Geert Rouwenhorst
Robert B. and Candice J. Haas Professor of Corporate Finance & Deputy Director of the International Center for Finance


Ajay Banga
CEO, MasterCard

Steven Carples


Richard C. Levin
Richard Levin
Frederick William Beinecke Professor of Economics

Dacia Toll
Co-CEO and President, Achievement First

Shameem Black
Assistant Professor of English, Yale University

Rosemary Ripley
Managing Director, NGEN

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