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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


James A. Phills
Professor of Organizational Behavior and Director of the Executive Program for Philanthropy Leaders and the Center for Social Innovation, Stanford Graduate School of Business

Andrew W. Lo
Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance, MIT Sloan School of Management; Founder and Chief Scientific Officer, AlphaSimplex Group, LLC


Christopher Cabot
President, Value Retail China

Rosalyn Cama
President and Principal Interior Designer, CAMA, Inc.

Richard L. Sandor
Founder, Chairman, and CEO, Chicago Climate Exchange Before starting a carbon-trading market, was a principal architect of the interest-rate futures market

Edieal J. Pinker
Professor of Operations Research and Professor of Health Policy

Fred Terrell
Vice Chairman of Investment Banking, Credit Suisse


Bertrand Quelin
Professor of Strategy and Business Policy, HEC Paris

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