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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Robert Mendelsohn
Edwin Weyerhaeuser Davis Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics

Ibrahim Mayaki
CEO, New Partnership for Africa's Development


Yasar Gamali
Executive Director and Egypt Country Manager, Abraaj Capital

Robert A. M. Stern
Dean & J. M. Hoppin Professor of Architecture, Yale School of Architecture; Founder and Senior Partner, Robert A. M. Stern Architects

Tony Sheldon
Lecturer in the Practice of Management & Executive Director of the Program on Social Enterprise

Rosemary Ripley
Managing Director, NGEN

Professor Richard Foster
Richard N. Foster
Lecturer in Management

Charles Hill
Distinguished Fellow in International Security Studies, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University

Julien Cayla
Senior Lecturer in Marketing, Australian School of Business

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