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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Michael Apkon
President and CEO, The Hospital for Sick Children

William Hutton

Lawrence H. Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and Former President, Harvard University; Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury

Elizabeth H. Bradley
Professor of Public Health and Director of the Health Management Program, Yale School of Public Health

Danny Meyer
CEO, Union Square Hospitality Group

Ashley Goldsmith
Chief Human Resources Officer, Workday, Inc.

Rick Antle
William S. Beinecke Professor of Accounting

Marc Speichert
Chief Marketing Officer, L'Oréal

Clive Meanwell
CEO, The Medicines Company

Christopher Cabot
President, Value Retail China

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