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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Robert Glaser
Founder, Chairman, and CEO, RealNetworks Graduate of Yale University Launched RealAudio, the first internet media player

Professor Florian Ederer
Florian Ederer
Assistant Professor of Economics

Ajay Banga
CEO, MasterCard

Richard L. Sandor
Founder, Chairman, and CEO, Chicago Climate Exchange Before starting a carbon-trading market, was a principal architect of the interest-rate futures market

James Choi
Professor of Finance

Roberta Romano
Roberta Romano
Sterling Professor of Law and Director, Yale Law School Center for the Study of Corporate Law

Jeremy Eden
Cofounder and Co-CEO, Harvest Earnings

Deborah S. Davis
Professor of Sociology, Yale University

Lori Lucas
Executive Vice President and Defined Contribution Practice Leader, Callan Associates

Catherine Smith
Commissioner, Connecticut Department of Economics and Community Development

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