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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Alfrédo Gangotena
Chief Marketing Officer, Mastercard Worldwide

Ann Olivarius

Marian Chertow
Associate Professor of Industrial Environmental Management, Director of the Program on Solid Waste Policy & Director of the Industrial Environmental Management Program

James A. Levinsohn
Director of the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Charles W. Goodyear Professor in Global Affairs & Professor of Economics and Management

Eugene Podkaminer
Senior Vice President of Capital Markets Research, Callan Associates

Claire Johnson
Vice President, Google Offers, Google

Charles D. Ellis
Consultant in Investing; Director & Former Managing Partner, Greenwich Associates

Jeremy Eden
Cofounder and Co-CEO, Harvest Earnings

Professor Amandine Ody-Brasier
Amandine Ody-Brasier
Assistant Professor of Organizational Behavior

Danny Meyer
CEO, Union Square Hospitality Group

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