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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Joel Klein
Chief Executive Officer, Amplify

Jim Matheson
CEO, Oasys Water


Professor Victoria L. Brescoll
Victoria L. Brescoll
Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior

Lei Zhang
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Hillhouse Capital Management

Gretchen Daily
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University; Chair, The Natural Capital Project

Laurence Capron
Professor of Strategy, INSEAD

Todd Moss
Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development; Director, The Emerging Africa Project

Professor Judy Chevalier
Judith A. Chevalier
William S. Beinecke Professor of Finance and Economics

Philip Davis
Head of Visa Client Consulting, Visa Inc.

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