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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors



Nicholas LaRusso
Director, Center for Innovation, Mayo Clinic

Amy Chua
John M. Duff Jr. Professor of Law, Yale Law School; Author, Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance — and Why They Fall

Paul Tepfenhart
Senior Director, Private Brands, Walmart

Charles Hill
Distinguished Fellow in International Security Studies, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University

Esther Duflo
Abdul Latif Jameel Professor of Poverty Alleviation and Development Economics, MIT; Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab


Professor Gary Gorton
Gary B. Gorton
Frederick Frank Class of 1954 Professor of Management & Professor of Finance

Christine Jolls
Gordon Bradford Tweedy Professor of Law and Organization, Yale Law School

Ann Olivarius

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