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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Michael Sanders
Principal Advisor and Head of Research, The Behavioural Insights Team


Daniel-Goleman
Author, Ecological Intelligence: How Knowing the Hidden Impacts of What We Buy Can Change Everything

Andrew J. Redleaf
Founder and CEO, Whitebox Advisors LLC


Roger Brown
President, Berklee College of Music

Ricardo Morales
Executive Director, Joining Forces, The White House

Jim Millstein
Managing Director, Lazard Frères & Co.

Professor Justin Murfin
Justin Murfin
Associate Professor of Finance

Steven Carples

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