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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Antonio Lucio
Global Chief Marketing, Strategy, and Corporate Development Officer, Visa Inc.; Board of Advisors, Yale Center for Customer Insights


Professor William Goetzmann
William N. Goetzmann
Edwin J. Beinecke Professor of Finance and Management Studies & Director of the International Center for Finance

Rajesh Subramaniam
EVP, Global Marketing and Communications, FedEx Services

Richard Skolnik
Lecturer in Public Health, Yale School of Public Health

Jim Millstein
Managing Director, Lazard Frères & Co.

Sass Darwish
Managing Partner, DS Advisory Group

Ann Olivarius


President and Co-Founder, Meehan Combs
Eli Combs
President and Co-Founder, Meehan Combs

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