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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Brad Abelow

Professor Amandine Ody-Brasier
Amandine Ody-Brasier
Assistant Professor of Organizational Behavior

Werner Antweiler
Associate Professor, Sauder School of Business

Steven Carples

John Pepper
Former Chairman and CEO, P&G

Kevin Thompson
Senior Program Manager for Brand System Programs, IBM

Naomi Hirose
President, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)

Marc Speichert
Chief Marketing Officer, L'Oréal

Tyler Cowen
Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Rick Antle
William S. Beinecke Professor of Accounting

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