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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors



Brande Stellings YC '89
Vice President, Advisory Services, Professional Services Practice at Catalyst

Sass Darwish
Managing Partner, DS Advisory Group


Robert Costanza
Gund Professor of Ecological Economics, and Director of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont

Jenifer Van Vleck
Assistant Professor of History and American Studies, Yale University

Jeffrey L. Bewkes
Chairman and CEO, Time Warner

Marc Mayer
Head of North American Institutions, Schroders



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