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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Ned Welch
Senior Practice Expert, McKinsey & Company

Stella Fearnley
Professor in Accounting, Director Centre for Finance and Risk, Bournemouth University

Julien Cayla
Senior Lecturer in Marketing, Australian School of Business


Daniel Gross
Managing Director, Oaktree Capital Management

Jan U. Hagen
Associate Professor and Head of the Practice Group Financial Services, ESMT



Nancy Pfund
Managing Partner, DBL Investors

Fareed Zakaria
Editor, Newsweek International; Author, The Post-American World

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