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Top of Mind

On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Robert Galvin, MD
CEO, Equity Healthcare; Professor Adjunct of Medicine and Health Policy, Yale School of Medicine

Philip Gorski
Professor of Sociology, Yale University

Bryan Kim
Head of Strategy and Marketing for Biosimilars, Boehringer Ingelheim

Antonio Lucio
Global Chief Marketing, Strategy, and Corporate Development Officer, Visa Inc.; Board of Advisors, Yale Center for Customer Insights

Kyriacos Sabatakakis
Managing Director, South Eastern Europe, Accenture


Jim Millstein
Managing Director, Lazard Frères & Co.

Robert Litterman
Chairman, Risk Committee, Kepos Capital


James A. Levinsohn
Director of the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Charles W. Goodyear Professor in Global Affairs & Professor of Economics and Management

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