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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Edward A. Snyder
Indra K. Nooyi Dean & William S. Beinecke Professor of Economics and Management

Cary Krosinsky
Lead Consultant, Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), Climate Change Asset Owner Strategy; Lecturer, Yale College and Yale Climate & Energy Institute

Elizabeth Serlemitsos
Chief Advisor, Zambian National AIDS Council

Alfrédo Gangotena
Chief Marketing Officer, Mastercard Worldwide

Robert Mendelsohn
Edwin Weyerhaeuser Davis Professor of Forest Policy & Professor of Economics

Ranji Nagaswami
Visiting Executive Fellow, Yale School of Management International Center for Finance

James A. Levinsohn
Director of the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Charles W. Goodyear Professor in Global Affairs & Professor of Economics and Management

Robert Greenly

Paul Bracken
Professor of Management & Professor of Political Science

Arvind Subramanian
Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India

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