NO. 02

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Forecasting the Vote

The media has traditionally avoided releasing voting results for battleground states until polls close. That will change on November 8 when a startup, VoteCastr, partners with Slate to publish real-time projections, based on turnout, like those in presidential campaign war rooms.

While instantaneous data gratification is increasingly the norm, one of the most respected polling organization, the Pew Research Center, is slowing things down. Noting the effective coverage of the pre-election “horse race” by poll aggregators, Pew wants to focus on “questions that others are not asking, at a depth that others may not have the resources to investigate.”

There is no shortage of polls, but they may be getting less reliable. The Harvard Business Review examines the technological and cultural shifts that make polling more challenging than even a few years ago.

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James A. Phills
Professor of Organizational Behavior and Director of the Executive Program for Philanthropy Leaders and the Center for Social Innovation, Stanford Graduate School of Business

John Crowley
Senior Lecturer in English, Creative Writing, Yale University; Author of nine novels

Ragy Thomas
CEO and Founder, Sprinklr

David Bach
Senior Associate Dean for the Executive MBA and Global Programs & Professor in the Practice of Management

Rosalyn Cama
President and Principal Interior Designer, CAMA, Inc.

Fiona M. Scott Morton
Theodore Nierenberg Professor of Economics

Eric Schmidt
Executive Chairman, Google

Kenneth Scheve
Professor of Political Science and Co-director of the Leitner Program in International and Comparative Political Economy, Yale University