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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors



Professor Nicholas C. Barberis
Nicholas C. Barberis
Stephen and Camille Schramm Professor of Finance

Manuel Gomez Pena
Vice President of Sustainability, Walmart

Marc Mayer
Head of North American Institutions, Schroders

Fernando Y. Roxas
Core Faculty, Asian Institute of Management

Kevin Thompson
Senior Program Manager for Brand System Programs, IBM

Emily Haisley
Vice President, Behavioural Finance, Barclays

Timothy Smith
Director of Socially Responsive Investment, Walden Asset Management; Former Executive Director, Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility

Dacia Toll
Co-CEO and President, Achievement First

Professor Zhiwu Chen
Zhiwu Chen
Professor of Finance

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