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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Peter Bearman
Jonathan Cole Professor of Social Science, Columbia University; Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy

Mary Tanner
Senior Managing Director, EVOLUTION Life Sciences Partners

Garry D. Brewer
Professor Emeritus

Jack Griffin
CEO, Tribune Publishing

Kelly Brownell
Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University; Co-Founder and Director, Rudd Center for Food Policy & Obesity

José Manuel Barroso
José Manuel Durão Barroso
President of the European Commission

Clive Meanwell
CEO, The Medicines Company

Alix Zwane
Executive Director, Evidence Action

Moises Naim
Editor, Foreign Policy

Sandra Urie
Chairman & CEO, Cambridge Associates

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