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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


William J. Bernstein
William J. Bernstein, author of A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World


Rishad Tobaccowala
CEO, Denuo


Edward H. Kaplan
Edward H. Kaplan
William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research, Professor of Public Health & Professor of Engineering


Christine Barton
Senior Partner, Boston Consulting Group

Kurt Kuehn
Chief Financial Officer, UPS

George E. Newman
Assistant Professor of Management and Marketing

Naomi Hirose
President, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)

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