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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Marc Mayer
Head of North American Institutions, Schroders

Gita Wirjawan
Former Trade Minister, Indonesia; Founder, Ancora Group

Sherri Goodman
Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary, CNA


Linda Schupack
Executive Vice President, Marketing, AMC

Arthur  Campbell
Arthur Campbell
Associate Professor of Economics


Professor Douglas Kysar
Joseph M. Field '55 Professor of Law, Yale Law School

Gretchen Daily
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University; Chair, The Natural Capital Project

Paul Anastas
Teresa and H. John Heinz III Professor in the Practice of Chemistry for the Environment; Director of the Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering; Director of Sustainability Curriculum, MBA for Executives Program

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