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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Andrew W. Lo
Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance, MIT Sloan School of Management; Founder and Chief Scientific Officer, AlphaSimplex Group, LLC

Professor Thomas Kolditz
Thomas A. Kolditz
Professor in the Practice of Leadership and Management & Director of the Leadership Development Program

Allison Silvers
Chief Operating Officer, Freelancers Health Service Corporation

Professor Rodrigo Canales
Rodrigo Canales
Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior

William J. Bernstein
William J. Bernstein, author of A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World

Lawrence H. Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and Former President, Harvard University; Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury

Maureen C. Chiquet
Global Chief Executive Officer, Chanel

Anne Kvam
Head of Corporate Governance, Norges Bank Investment Management

Rosalyn Cama
President and Principal Interior Designer, CAMA, Inc.

Daniel-Goleman
Author, Ecological Intelligence: How Knowing the Hidden Impacts of What We Buy Can Change Everything

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