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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Scott Griffith
CEO, Zipcar

Shawn Heath
Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer, Duke Energy

Jonathan Schechter '86

Hal Sirkin
Senior Partner and Managing Director, Boston Consulting Group

Nancy Pfund
Managing Partner, DBL Investors

Fernando Y. Roxas
Core Faculty, Asian Institute of Management

Eric Schmidt
Executive Chairman, Google

John Rice
Founder and President, Management Leadership for Tomorrow

Moises Naim
Editor, Foreign Policy

Stefan Wagner
Associate Professor and TUSIAD/TCCI Chair in European Economic Integration, ESMT

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