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On the Other Hand

What’s happening to the global economy? Dozens of equity markets have fallen into bear territory. There’s solid job growth in the U.S., but China is struggling to avoid a hard landing. The Fed is confident enough to raise interest rates, but oil prices have crashed.

The atmosphere is one of profound uncertainty. “What makes these falling prices unnerving,” the New York Times says, “is that it’s hard to tell a simple story about what is driving them.”

What’s the worst-case scenario? “We might be at the edge of a global recession,” said Citibank’s Christian Schulz on Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter of 2015, global growth approached the 2% mark—and central banks have few options remaining. “It’s a vulnerable situation.”

The drop in equity markets may simply be a needed correction, the Economist noted. But, the magazine wrote elsewhere, “whether the market gyrations are rooted firmly in fundamentals or not, they could themselves be a source of economic instability…. A recession, after all, is nothing more than a rut of self-ratifying pessimism.”

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Contributors


Paul Anastas
Teresa and H. John Heinz III Professor in the Practice of Chemistry for the Environment; Director of the Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering; Director of Sustainability Curriculum, MBA for Executives Program

Professor James Baron
James N. Baron
William S. Beinecke Professor of Management

Professor Sharon Oster
Sharon M. Oster
Frederic D. Wolfe Professor of Management and Entrepreneurship

John Wylie
John Wylie
Former Director, Tabubil Futures Initiative

Ernesto Zedillo
Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, and Professor in the Field of International Economics and Politics, Yale University; Former President of Mexico

Michael Apkon
President and CEO, The Hospital for Sick Children

John Lichtenstein
Managing Director, Global Metals, Accenture

Professor Amandine Ody-Brasier
Amandine Ody-Brasier
Assistant Professor of Organizational Behavior

Bill Claybaugh
Senior Director of Human Space Systems, Orbital Sciences Corporation

David Bach
Senior Associate Dean for Executive MBA and Global Programs & Senior Lecturer

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